Week 10 NFL Picks

Apologies for the brevity, but I forgot to post these entirely on Friday. Anyways, here they are. Not too many dogs I’m gravitating towards this weekend, but I’m a big fan of numerous home teams laying less than a field goal. Good luck!

Ravens (-7.5) over BROWNS

JAGUARS (-2.5) over Texans

PANTHERS (-3) over Chiefs

SAINTS (-3) over Broncos

JETS (-1.5) over Rams

EAGLES (+1.5) over Falcons

WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Vikings

Packers (-2.5) over TITANS

Bears (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS

CHARGERS (-4) over Dolphins

CARDINALS (-14) over 49ers

STEELERS (-2.5) over Cowboys

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Seahawks

GIANTS (+1) over Bengals

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 2-7-1

Season: 59-66-6, 47.1 percent

Advertisements

Week 9 NFL Picks

(Home team in CAPS)

Jets (+3.5) over DOLPHINS

Jay Ajayi looked terrific in two games prior to Miami’s bye, but it was just that: two games. The Dolphins were also setup for success perfectly, facing an ailing Steelers offense with hideous road splits and the Bills sans LeSean McCoy in back-to-back weeks. Now their fourth consecutive home game, Miami will be forced to stop Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall. Even if the Jets fall short, 3.5 points is 0.5 points too many.

BROWNS (+7) over Cowboys

If there were ever a trap game for Dallas, this is it. Sandwiched in between an emotional win over the Philadelphia Eagles and road trip to Heinz Field is this noon kick-off against the Browns, who are currently 0-8 on the year. If Josh McCown were starting, I would even go as far as to load up on the moneyline. Either way, without Morris Claiborne and Barry Church to help stop Terrelle Pryor and the returning Corey Coleman, I can’t imagine a scenario in which Cleveland doesn’t at least cover.

 

CHIEFS (-7) over Jaguars

GIANTS (-2.5) over Eagles

Saints (-4) over 49ERS

This game is primed for an upset, but I believe the Saints struck gold in their last road trip to Kansas City. They may not have won that game, but they discovered how to get the most out of their offense on the road: possession football. Now they’ve called run on 40.7 percent of their offensive plays in the last two games. They ran on only 33.3 percent of plays through the first six weeks of the season. Timark Ingramower will carry the Saints to victory.

RAMS (+3) over Panthers

PACKERS (-7.5) over Colts

Unbeknownst to Andrew Luck, who continues posting gaudy numbers in spite of the talent (or lack thereof) surrounding him, this Colts team is absolutely dreadful. Even if Vontae Davis were cleared and Randall Cobb (doubtful) were ruled out, expect big days from Ty Montgomery, Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams. Indianapolis has notably allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs (Montgomery, in this case) and seventh-most to opposing quarterbacks.

Titans (+4) over CHARGERS

I’m not buying Tennessee’s win over Jacksonville. This pick is more because the Chargers are expected to be missing Hunter Henry, and potentially the duo of Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams (both questionable). There are only so many injuries San Diego can withstand, and anything short of their top-three receivers is concerning. Whether it’s DeMarco Murray or Derrick Henry carrying the load for Tennessee, the Chargers have allowed the sixth-most raw fantasy points to opposing running backs.

VIKINGS (-5.5) over Lions

Broncos (+1) over RAIDERS

The marquee matchup of Sunday features an offense that’s allowed the fewest quarterback hits and pressures against a defense that’s recorded the most in both categories. The Raiders, however, have been much worse at home. Oakland’s defense has allowed 11 yards per passing attempt at the Coliseum this season, 4.1 yards more than what they’ve allowed on the road. Forget about Derek Carr’s 513 passing yards last week and focus more on the fact that the Raiders somehow won despite committing an NFL record 23 penalties for 200 yards.

Bills (+7) over SEAHAWKS

With LeSean McCoy healthy, the Bills were 4-2 and averaged 166.5 rushing yards per game. Hobbled with injury over the last two weeks, Buffalo has lost two consecutive divisional bouts and averaged 321.5 total yards. With McCoy reportedly healthy now, it’s clear who the better team in this matchup is. Forget about the seven points. I’ll gladly take the moneyline (+245) here.

(Editor’s Note: Steelers-Ravens had no line due to Ben Roethlisberger’s pending injury and therefore wasn’t discussed.)

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 5-7

Season: 56-60-5, 48.2 percent

Week 8 NFL Picks

This isn’t as timely as normal, but that’s what happens during the first week of NBA season. Either way, I have thoroughly-researched picks prepped and ready to go — there’s just little time to elaborate. So here they are, straight to the point. I’ll be back to blurbing notes with them next week.

(Home team in CAPS)

JAGUARS (+3.5) over Titans

BENGALS (-3) over Washington

Packers (+3) over FALCONS

Lions (+2.5) over TEXANS

SAINTS (+2.5) over Seahawks

Patriots (-6.5) over BILLS

BROWNS (+3) over Jets

BUCCANEERS (Pick) over Raiders

COLTS (+3) over Chiefs

BRONCOS (-4.5) over Chargers

Cardinals (+3) over PANTHERS

COWBOYS (-5) over Eagles

Vikings (-4.5) over BEARS

 

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 5-8-1

Season: 51-52-5, 49.5 percent

Week 7 NFL Picks

(Home team in CAPS)

Bears (+7.5) over PACKERS

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-1-58-38-pm

Spoiler Alert: Alshon Jeffery did not regress. In my defense, the Bears were only trailing by a field goal when Brian Hoyer went down.

RAMS (+3) over Giants

I should note that I don’t actually have any units personally on this game. Hypothetically, though, neither of these teams should be laying a field goal in London. Take the points blindly (or, better yet, avoid it entirely).

Vikings (-3) over EAGLES

This is the ultimate trap spot for Minnesota, but I’m fine with taking an L as long as it means not betting against them. The Vikings are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.

CHIEFS (-6) over Saints

Enough betting minds I respect are on New Orleans +6 this week, but I just can’t come around to the idea of the Saints stopping anyone Spencer Ware on the road. Sure, the Chiefs average only 5.4 yards per play (22nd in the league), but New Orleans’ defense has been gashed each and every week.

Washington (+1.5) over LIONS

Albeit an incremental amount, 1.5-points seems like too many for Detroit to be giving. If you’re skeptical, take the Over (49.5) and move on.

BENGALS (-10) over Browns

The Bengals were on their way to covering against New England before Bill Belichick suddenly realized that Cincy’s linebackers couldn’t keep up with James White. They should win with ease against a hapless Browns team that could potentially be without Terrelle Pryor this weekend.

Bills (-3) over DOLPHINS 

Miami isn’t fooling anyone with that performance against Pittsburgh. Buy high on the Bills this week.

JAGUARS (-1) over Raiders

Allen Robinson has caught six passes for 103 yards on the road this season. At home, he’s recorded 18 receptions for 184 yards and three scores.

TITANS (-3) over Colts

Over the last two weeks, Mike Mularkey has finally been using Marcus Mariota properly. He’s averaged seven carries (14 total) in that time, and has essentially stopped targeting Andre Johnson and Tajae Sharp (three combined targets against Cleveland in Week 6). Indianapolis additionally remains a disaster on defense, allowing the ninth- and second-most raw fantasy points to quarterbacks and running backs. (DeMarco Murray, anyone?)

Ravens (+2) over JETS

Chargers (+6.5) over FALCONS

No team is in a worse spot than the Falcons this week. Not only do they somehow have to bounce back from grueling defeat in Seattle, Atlanta is notably 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite. If that weren’t enough, the Chargers have had 10 days to prepare and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. I don’t even mind San Diego straight up (+205) here.

Buccaneers (Pick) over 49ERS

Since NaVorro Bowman went down in Week 4, opposing RB1’s have averaged 23 carries for 148.5 yards (6.45 YPC) and 2.5 touchdowns against San Francisco in the last two weeks. Jacquizz Rodgers isn’t David Johnson, but he did receive 35 carries in his last spot start in place of Doug Martin.

STEELERS (+7) over Patriots

If Philip Rivers weren’t the cover image, it would be Le’Veon Bell. That’s how much I love the Steelers here. Ben Roethlisberger clearly matters, but this line has over-adjusted to extreme heights. In fact, if Roethlisberger were healthy, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Steelers would be favored in this spot. Instead, they’re getting a touchdown at home. Landry Jones wasn’t the most efficient quarterback in two starts for Big Ben last season (513 yards, 58.2 completion percentage), but he now has experience under his belt. That’s more than he could say last year. I like Pittsburgh to win outright.

Seahawks (+1.5) over CARDINALS

When this line initially opened in April, the Seahawks were favored by one point. Suddenly, they’re road dogs. I don’t mind Arizona’s new offensive scheme — ground-and-pound plus play-action rather than airing it out constantly — but Seattle’s defense isn’t what’s been holding them back. If Russell Wilson is even marginally healthier than he showed last week, Seattle should at least cover.

BRONCOS (-8.5) over Texans

Ideally, you’ll want to tease the Broncos before this line reaches -9. -8.5 is probably safe, but it’s a bit concerning that Vegas has Denver winning by nearly nine points despite setting this total at 40.5. That would basically imply that Denver destroys Houston in a no-contest. Once again, not out of the realm of possibility.

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 7-6-2

Season: 46-43-4, 51.6 percent

Week 6 NFL Picks

Broncos (-3) over CHARGERS

screen-shot-2016-10-14-at-12-01-18-pm

Like I said: not the sharp side. Serves me right.

DOLPHINS (+7.5) over Steelers

At this time last week, the Steelers were laying 4.5 points to Miami. One week later, they’re suddenly favored by more than a touchdown. It’s obvious to anyone that’s watched even one snap of Dolphins football that they’re the worst team in the league, but Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a juggernaut away from Heinz Field. Ben Roethlisberger, for example, has averaged 312 yards and 2.5 touchdowns at home over the last three seasons. On the road, those averages have plummeted to 283 and 1.2. There’s also the fact that Adam Gase finally had enough of his own team, outright cutting his own starting left tackle (Billy Turner) and guard (Dallas Thomas) earlier this week. For Miami, there’s now an aura that everyone is essentially playing for their jobs. It would be a travesty if the Dolphins don’t somehow cover here.

Bengals (+8.5) over PATRIOTS

When this line initially opened in April (prior to Tom Brady’s suspension), the Patriots were favored by four points. The Bengals admittedly haven’t looked like the playoff contender we all thought they would be, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Fact is they haven’t looked like anything just yet. No one has any clue what this team’s identity is, which makes them an extremely dangerous matchup on the road. They’re certainly not as bad as they looked on Sunday, and they likely aren’t as good as they performed against Miami two weeks ago. Something’s gotta give.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Ravens

SAINTS (+2.5) over Panthers

The Panthers began the season with James Bradberry, Robert McClain, and Bene Benwikere as their three starting corners. All three are out this week (Benwikere was cut earlier in the week). Cam Newton averaged 646 yards and threw for seven touchdowns against New Orleans last season, but it’s an even better matchup for Drew Brees due to Carolina’s injuries. As mentioned time and time again, the Saints’ offense is also unstoppable at home.

BEARS (-2) over Jaguars

The Jaguars will definitely be a sharp play this week, but I can’t in good conscience shy away from the home team laying less than a field goal — especially when said home team is still starting their best options at quarterback (Brian Hoyer), running back (Jordan Howard), and wide receiver (Cam Meredith).

49ers (+9) over BILLS

This line is clearly inflated so that the books can protect themselves against Bills teasers — multi-team bets that involve trading six points in your favor for lower odds. (In this particular case, a teaser would allow you to lay three points with Buffalo rather than nine.) Either way, there’s an outside chance the 49ers cover outright. With Marcell Dareus missing from the middle of Buffalo’s defensive line this week, San Francisco should have no issues running the ball, which is something they do on 51 percent of their offensive plays. I don’t expect them to stop Buffalo defensively, but they should be able to keep up (and, in turn, cover).

LIONS (-3) over Rams

Browns (+7) over TITANS

Since when did the Titans earn the right to lay a touchdown over anyone?

WASHINGTON (+2.5) over Eagles

For the second consecutive week, books have favored Carson Wentz, a rookie, on the road. And for the second straight week, the wrong team is favored. There’s no denying that Ryan Mathews (health permitting) should have a spectacular day rushing against the league’s worst run defense, but Washington should be able to cover as an inexplicable home dog.

Chiefs (-2) over RAIDERS

Andy Reid is 15-2 SU following a bye.

SEAHAWKS (-6) over Falcons

Cowboys (+4) over PACKERS

By now, you’ve heard that Green Bay has the league’s best rushing defense, suffocating opposing backs to the tune of 2.0 yards per attempt. Whatever the case, that statistic is slightly overblown. The Packers have yet to play even a mediocre rushing offense, facing T.J. Yeldon (3.2 YPA this season), Adrian Peterson (1.6), Theo Riddick (3.4), and Orleans Darkwa (3.7) to date. Green Bay’s defensive line penetrates consistently enough that they warrant some respect, but it should still be an easy day at the office for Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas’ offensive line.

TEXANS (-3) over Colts

Jets (+7.5) over CARDINALS

Let’s assume for a moment that the Cardinals and Steelers were facing one another on a neutral field this week. What would the line be? Steelers -1? -2, or even -2.5, maybe?  Well, Pittsburgh was favored by 7.5 points over the Jets just last week. Needless to say, the Cardinals haven’t shown anything that warrants them being favored by the same total over New York.

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 4-8-1

Season: 39-37-2, 48.6 percent

Week 5 NFL Picks

(Home team in CAPS)

49ERS (+3.5) over Cardinals

Screen Shot 2016-10-07 at 9.24.26 AM.png

4-0 was fun while it lasted. The Thursday Night Pick is now 4-1 and counting.

BROWNS (+10.5) over Patriots

When this line initially opened in April (prior to Tom Brady’s suspension), the Browns were getting seven points at home. This Sunday, they’re suddenly getting 10.5. So what’s happened since? For my money, all we’ve learned in that time is that Hue Jackson is one hell of a coach, and Cleveland should be 3-1 (2-2 at worst) rather than 0-4. Don’t let their “illustrious” history fool you: the Browns are much better than the 10.5 points show, especially at home.

LIONS (+3.5) over Eagles

The Lions are a shitty football team, but even they don’t warrant this kind of disrespect. Quite frankly, the wrong team is favored. Carson Wentz has averaged 3.39 air yards per attempt, 31st among quarterbacks. While that worked at home against the Steelers, who have notably struggled in covering running back/wide receiver screens this season, Philadelphia will be hard-pressed to find similar success on the road.

Bears (+4.5) over COLTS

The Colts are the first team in league history that, for whatever reason, have to play a game following a week spent in London. I’m sure this will go well. And by the way, the Bears still have their best players (Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard) starting under center and in the backfield.

DOLPHINS (-3.5) over Titans

RAVENS (-4) over Washington

Whereas Cleveland should be .500 or better, Washington has lucked into a 2-2 start. It took a last-second interception to defeat the Giants on the road in Week 3, and two errant fumbles (one that technically wasn’t even lost) to beat the Browns in Week 4. No matter who receives the lion’s share of carries for Baltimore (Terrance West or Kenneth Dixon), they’re sure to prosper: Washington has allowed 4.9 YPA on the ground this season.

VIKINGS (-7) over Texans

Not that J.J. Watt had made an impact this season, but in Houston’s first test without him, it allowed DeMarco Murray to rush for 95 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, Brock Osweiler has yet to finish any week as a top-15 fantasy quarterback, coming in as the QB27 in two of his last three performances. The Vikings should dominate here.

STEELERS (-7) over Jets

New York’s secondary, which already had it’s fair share of issues, will likely be without Darrelle Revis this week. Sure, he’s been awful, but his presence is still a step up from asking Marcus Williams or rookie Juston Burris to cover the duo of Antonio Brown and Sammie Coates. Additionally, the Jets have allowed a league-high 13 passing plays of 25-yards or more. This won’t be pretty.

BRONCOS (-4.5) over Falcons

Bengals (-1) over COWBOYS

Dallas’ offensive line created holes with ease last week, but Cincinnati’s front-seven is slightly better than San Francisco’s. Excluding their matchup against the four-headed machination of Miami’s backfield, the Bengals limited Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams, and C.J. Anderson to a combined 227 yards on 68 carries (3.3 yards per attempt) this year. They’ve also suffocated slot receivers this season, allowing two catches and 37 yards to Eric Decker in Week 1; limiting Eli Rogers to one catch (and nine yards) in Week 2; allowing a total of two receptions for 23 yards to Bennie Fowler and Cody Latimer in Week 3; and, in their most daunting matchup to date, holding Jarvis Landry to 61 yards on 10 targets in Week 4. I have no clue how Dallas expects to move the ball if Ezekiel Elliott and Cole Beasley are rendered useless.

RAMS (-2) over Bills

Following their own personal Super Bowl against Bill Belichick and New England, the Bills now have to somehow “get up” to travel across country and face the Rams — not as exciting. Consecutive victories over the Cardinals and Patriots is impressive, but this is an absolutely horrific spot for Buffalo. Todd Gurley should have an exceptional afternoon (sorta rare nowadays) if Benny Cunningham is inactive: without the latter available to play his usual third-down role last week, Gurley tied his career-high in targets with five.

Chargers (+3.5) over RAIDERS

Giants (+7) over PACKERS

I absolutely love this game for fantasy purposes. The Packers, for instance, generally play faster (and better) at home. Meanwhile, the Giants have averaged 34.5 no-huddle plays this season, more than San Francisco (33.2) and Detroit (29.5). I expect a shootout that the Packers just barely manage to escape with a win.

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 6-8

Season: 35-28-1, 55.5 percent

Week 4 NFL Picks

(Home team in CAPS)

BENGALS (-7) over Dolphins

Screen Shot 2016-09-30 at 12.14.36 PM.png

Colts (-2.5) over JAGUARS

Browns (+7.5) over WASHINGTON

Only Jay Gruden would have a perennial all-world corner on his roster and leave him arbitrarily cemented to one side of the field. Terrelle Pryor should have another excellent outing.

JETS (+2.5) over Seahawks

The Seahawks have received 71 percent of bets so far in this game, a number that screams “public money”. Whatever nickname you wish to label Ryan Fitzpatrick with — Sixpatrick, Pickpatrick, even Pick-sixpatrick — just know his home/road splits are outrageously different. As a New York Jet, for instance, he’s thrown 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions at home. On the road, those totals plummet (or, as it pertains to his interceptions, skyrocket) to 12 and 16. Considering the Seahawks will have to travel across country for this one, the duo of Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams should have no issues breaching Seattle’s sham of an offensive line and hurrying Russell Wilson with ease.

Panthers (-3) over FALCONS

BEARS (+3) over Lions

The Bears are starting the best quarterback and running back on their roster this week and you can’t convince me otherwise. Chicago initially opened as a 1.5-point home favorite in April, but this line has since moved for obvious reasons — primarily due to their personnel being a disaster. Now winless and hosting a divisional foe, my “educated” guess is the Bears show up big here. They’ll certainly have plenty of chances to do so: Detroit is averaging as many no-huddle plays as San Francisco through Week 3.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Titans

I would actually consider backing Tennessee if Delanie Walker were fully healthy. Alas, he’s a game-time decision. You (unfortunately) saw how little offense the Titans could produce without him last week.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Raiders

BUCCANEERS (+3) over Broncos

Cowboys (-2) over 49ERS

Dallas is clearly the better team by all accounts, but tread lightly. Dating back to last season, San Francisco’s defensive splits at home have been astronomically better.

Screen Shot 2016-09-30 at 6.31.45 AM.png

CHARGERS (-4) over Saints

CARDINALS (-8) over Rams

The Cardinals have been a letdown by all standards thus far. Even so, Los Angeles has been exploited for 12 carries of 10-plus yards, second-most among defenses this season. Carson Palmer doesn’t need to have a great game for Arizona to cover here (although I personally think he will).

STEELERS (-5) over Chiefs

By now, you know what the Chiefs’ defense did to Fitzpatrick. In fact, they have yet to allow a top-20 quarterback in fantasy this early into the season. That note comes attached with an asterisk, though. Philip Rivers was well on his way to a top-10 performance before Keenan Allen exited early, and Kansas City was then gifted Brock Osweiler the following week. Ben Roethlisberger, who averages 8.1 YPA at home, should surgically carve through KC’s defense (sans Justin Houston).

VIKINGS (-5) over Giants

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 6-9-1

Season: 29-19-1, 60.4 percent

 

 

Week 3 NFL Picks

(Home team in CAPS)

PATRIOTS (-1) over Texans

screen-shot-2016-09-23-at-4-44-22-am

Jacoby Brissett was atrocious and it didn’t even matter. This one almost felt dirty. (Keyword: almost.)

BILLS (+4) over Cardinals

I absolutely hate this spot for Arizona. The Bills are on 10-days rest and returning home to face a Cardinals offense traveling from West to East for an early kick-off. Buffalo’s defense should be inspired following former OC Greg Roman’s (a.k.a. the fall guy) recent firing. This line also opened as Bills +2.5 back in April, but posted as Bills +6.5 overnight Sunday. It’s obviously shrunk since.

TITANS (Pick) over Raiders

The Raiders are clearly a young and upcoming team with postseason aspirations, but 2016 is already proving to be a dreadful year for them. Not only do they have to continue overcoming 1pm starts on the road in four of their next six games (Week 3 included), their defense has allowed 1,035 total yards so far, an NFL record for the most yards allowed through two games. Marcus Mariota should shine in this spot.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Washington

This line has decreased from -4.5 to -3.5 since it initially opened, but I still think the Giants should be favored by at least five points. Josh Norman will finally be unchained and allowed to shadow Odell Beckham, but that’s been overblown in this particular matchup. Washington’s weakness remains in the middle of the field where they’ve allowed slot receivers (Eli Rogers and Cole Beasley) to combine for 11 catches, 134 yards, and one touchdown through the first two weeks. Have yourself a day, Sterling Shepard.

DOLPHINS (-10) over Browns

Cody Kessler is starting in a professional football game.

JAGUARS (+1) over Ravens

Joe Flacco was pacing for a career-high 661 passing attempts before tearing his ACL in 2015. He’s now on pace for 624, also a career-high. Although that likely means another terrific performance in fantasy, Baltimore hasn’t done enough to warrant being favored on the road. That the Jags are nearly a pick following their dud last week tells you all you need to know about what Vegas thinks of them in Week 3.

PACKERS (-7) over Lions

Green Bay opened the season with back-to-back road games. That’s only notable because of Aaron Rodgers’ vast home/road splits last season. The Packers’ perennial all-world quarterback averaged 265.3 passing yards at Lambeau but only 212.4 yards on the road. Detroit’s offensive pace this season (sixth-highest, including 55 no-huddle plays) should allow the Packers and Rodgers to “get right” in a shootout at home.

Broncos (+3.5) over BENGALS

The Broncos defense suffocated Cam Newton and Andrew Luck in Weeks 1 and 2, limiting the two to a combined 391 passing yards, two scores, and three turnovers. That’s awful news for Andy Dalton and the Bengals’ offense, who currently lead the league with a 75 percent passing rate. What’s more is that Denver’s offensive strength aligns perfectly with Cincinnati’s weakness: the Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards through the first two weeks of the year.

PANTHERS (-7) over Vikings

Minnesota will be fine without Adrian Peterson longterm. When he was suspended for 15 games in 2014, Jerick McKinnon averaged 10.2 carries over 11 games, finishing with an average 4.76 yards per attempt. Matt Asiata handled all the red zone work in that time, averaging 2.47 carries inside the 20-yard line over 15 games. As for the Vikings’ short term outlook, note that Carolina’s defense has allowed only two backs (Rashad Jennings and C.J. Anderson) to eclipse 100-yards rushing in its last 14 games.

BUCCANEERS (-5) over Rams

The Bucs’ secondary will be one to target in fantasy as the season progresses. So far, their defense has allowed Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer to finish as the QB6 and QB5 in Weeks 1 and 2. Fortunately for them, their weakness is one that Los Angeles and, more specifically, Case Keenum can’t possibly exploit. The Rams have yet to engineer a scoring drive and have amassed only nine points through the first two weeks of the season.

SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over 49ers

Seattle’s offense and, more specifically, offensive line have looked abysmal so far. Having said that, San Francisco has run the most no-huddle plays on offense (90) through the first two weeks of the season. Even if their overall production results in mediocrity, the Seahawks are going to have numerous opportunities to cover here.

CHIEFS (-3) over Jets

The Jets have allowed eight completions of 25-plus yards and six runs of 10-plus. As great as New York’s front-seven has been, Alex Smith should create offense with ease. It doesn’t hurt for an ailing Chiefs defense that Brandon Marshall is questionable at best (though it’s likely he’ll play through injury).

COLTS (-2.5) over Chargers

The Colts’ defense ranks bottom-seven in passing and rushing yards allowed. They also haven’t had Vontae Davis, Patrick Robinson, and Trent Cole available at the same time. Assuming Davis returns and shadows Travis Benjamin immediately (something that has yet to be confirmed), Indianapolis’ offense should find a way to outscore the Chargers at home.

Steelers (-3.5) over EAGLES

The Eagles have produced a +34 point differential through the first two weeks, but their schedule thus far must be taken into account. For example, Philadelphia currently ranks 13th in Football Outsiders’ DAVE statistic despite running away from their opponents in Weeks 1 (Cleveland) and 2 (at Chicago). Ross Cockrell has quietly been a bright spot in Pittsburgh’s secondary so far and should have no issues containing Jordan Matthews.

Bears (+7.5) over COWBOYS

Since the Cowboys initially moved into AT&T Stadium in 2009, they’re 20-37-1 ATS. The market also caused this line to go off the rails. Dallas, for instance, opened as four-point home favorites before Jay Cutler was ruled out. Once that news broke, the line went as far as to budge off a key number (-7). Basically, I refuse to believe that Cutler is worth 3.5 points. I do, however, expect the Cowboys to produce numerous explosive plays in a game decided by less than a touchdown.

SAINTS (-3) over Falcons

Mark Ingram has scored five touchdowns in his last three games against Atlanta. I realize he’s received only 21 carries so far (nine in Week 2), but New Orleans can’t possibly continue passing in 67 percent of their offensive plays. I expect this game to go Under (53.5), although a spectacular outing for Matt Ryan is inevitable.

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 11-5

Season: 22-10, 68.7 percent

 

Dallas Cowboys at WFAA: Week 2

Conservative. Safe. Brandon Weeden-like. Those are just a few of the terms used to describe Dallas’ offense from Sunday.

While wildly ineffective and lacking explosiveness, a “conservative” approach it was not. In fact, I would argue the opposite. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott were the first rookie quarterback-running back combo to start a season opener for Dallas in nearly 50 years, leading one to believe that playing it safe was the only option left. After all, the Cowboys ranked 32nd, 24th, and 29th in offensive plays per game over the last three seasons. To think they would suddenly pick up their pace with a fourth-round play-caller under center is asinine.

You can read more at WFAA.com.