Week 4 NFL Picks

(Home team in CAPS)

BENGALS (-7) over Dolphins

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Colts (-2.5) over JAGUARS

Browns (+7.5) over WASHINGTON

Only Jay Gruden would have a perennial all-world corner on his roster and leave him arbitrarily cemented to one side of the field. Terrelle Pryor should have another excellent outing.

JETS (+2.5) over Seahawks

The Seahawks have received 71 percent of bets so far in this game, a number that screams “public money”. Whatever nickname you wish to label Ryan Fitzpatrick with — Sixpatrick, Pickpatrick, even Pick-sixpatrick — just know his home/road splits are outrageously different. As a New York Jet, for instance, he’s thrown 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions at home. On the road, those totals plummet (or, as it pertains to his interceptions, skyrocket) to 12 and 16. Considering the Seahawks will have to travel across country for this one, the duo of Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams should have no issues breaching Seattle’s sham of an offensive line and hurrying Russell Wilson with ease.

Panthers (-3) over FALCONS

BEARS (+3) over Lions

The Bears are starting the best quarterback and running back on their roster this week and you can’t convince me otherwise. Chicago initially opened as a 1.5-point home favorite in April, but this line has since moved for obvious reasons — primarily due to their personnel being a disaster. Now winless and hosting a divisional foe, my “educated” guess is the Bears show up big here. They’ll certainly have plenty of chances to do so: Detroit is averaging as many no-huddle plays as San Francisco through Week 3.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Titans

I would actually consider backing Tennessee if Delanie Walker were fully healthy. Alas, he’s a game-time decision. You (unfortunately) saw how little offense the Titans could produce without him last week.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Raiders

BUCCANEERS (+3) over Broncos

Cowboys (-2) over 49ERS

Dallas is clearly the better team by all accounts, but tread lightly. Dating back to last season, San Francisco’s defensive splits at home have been astronomically better.

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CHARGERS (-4) over Saints

CARDINALS (-8) over Rams

The Cardinals have been a letdown by all standards thus far. Even so, Los Angeles has been exploited for 12 carries of 10-plus yards, second-most among defenses this season. Carson Palmer doesn’t need to have a great game for Arizona to cover here (although I personally think he will).

STEELERS (-5) over Chiefs

By now, you know what the Chiefs’ defense did to Fitzpatrick. In fact, they have yet to allow a top-20 quarterback in fantasy this early into the season. That note comes attached with an asterisk, though. Philip Rivers was well on his way to a top-10 performance before Keenan Allen exited early, and Kansas City was then gifted Brock Osweiler the following week. Ben Roethlisberger, who averages 8.1 YPA at home, should surgically carve through KC’s defense (sans Justin Houston).

VIKINGS (-5) over Giants

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 6-9-1

Season: 29-19-1, 60.4 percent

 

 

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