Week 7 NFL Picks

(Home team in CAPS)

Bears (+7.5) over PACKERS

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Spoiler Alert: Alshon Jeffery did not regress. In my defense, the Bears were only trailing by a field goal when Brian Hoyer went down.

RAMS (+3) over Giants

I should note that I don’t actually have any units personally on this game. Hypothetically, though, neither of these teams should be laying a field goal in London. Take the points blindly (or, better yet, avoid it entirely).

Vikings (-3) over EAGLES

This is the ultimate trap spot for Minnesota, but I’m fine with taking an L as long as it means not betting against them. The Vikings are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.

CHIEFS (-6) over Saints

Enough betting minds I respect are on New Orleans +6 this week, but I just can’t come around to the idea of the Saints stopping anyone Spencer Ware on the road. Sure, the Chiefs average only 5.4 yards per play (22nd in the league), but New Orleans’ defense has been gashed each and every week.

Washington (+1.5) over LIONS

Albeit an incremental amount, 1.5-points seems like too many for Detroit to be giving. If you’re skeptical, take the Over (49.5) and move on.

BENGALS (-10) over Browns

The Bengals were on their way to covering against New England before Bill Belichick suddenly realized that Cincy’s linebackers couldn’t keep up with James White. They should win with ease against a hapless Browns team that could potentially be without Terrelle Pryor this weekend.

Bills (-3) over DOLPHINS 

Miami isn’t fooling anyone with that performance against Pittsburgh. Buy high on the Bills this week.

JAGUARS (-1) over Raiders

Allen Robinson has caught six passes for 103 yards on the road this season. At home, he’s recorded 18 receptions for 184 yards and three scores.

TITANS (-3) over Colts

Over the last two weeks, Mike Mularkey has finally been using Marcus Mariota properly. He’s averaged seven carries (14 total) in that time, and has essentially stopped targeting Andre Johnson and Tajae Sharp (three combined targets against Cleveland in Week 6). Indianapolis additionally remains a disaster on defense, allowing the ninth- and second-most raw fantasy points to quarterbacks and running backs. (DeMarco Murray, anyone?)

Ravens (+2) over JETS

Chargers (+6.5) over FALCONS

No team is in a worse spot than the Falcons this week. Not only do they somehow have to bounce back from grueling defeat in Seattle, Atlanta is notably 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite. If that weren’t enough, the Chargers have had 10 days to prepare and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. I don’t even mind San Diego straight up (+205) here.

Buccaneers (Pick) over 49ERS

Since NaVorro Bowman went down in Week 4, opposing RB1’s have averaged 23 carries for 148.5 yards (6.45 YPC) and 2.5 touchdowns against San Francisco in the last two weeks. Jacquizz Rodgers isn’t David Johnson, but he did receive 35 carries in his last spot start in place of Doug Martin.

STEELERS (+7) over Patriots

If Philip Rivers weren’t the cover image, it would be Le’Veon Bell. That’s how much I love the Steelers here. Ben Roethlisberger clearly matters, but this line has over-adjusted to extreme heights. In fact, if Roethlisberger were healthy, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Steelers would be favored in this spot. Instead, they’re getting a touchdown at home. Landry Jones wasn’t the most efficient quarterback in two starts for Big Ben last season (513 yards, 58.2 completion percentage), but he now has experience under his belt. That’s more than he could say last year. I like Pittsburgh to win outright.

Seahawks (+1.5) over CARDINALS

When this line initially opened in April, the Seahawks were favored by one point. Suddenly, they’re road dogs. I don’t mind Arizona’s new offensive scheme — ground-and-pound plus play-action rather than airing it out constantly — but Seattle’s defense isn’t what’s been holding them back. If Russell Wilson is even marginally healthier than he showed last week, Seattle should at least cover.

BRONCOS (-8.5) over Texans

Ideally, you’ll want to tease the Broncos before this line reaches -9. -8.5 is probably safe, but it’s a bit concerning that Vegas has Denver winning by nearly nine points despite setting this total at 40.5. That would basically imply that Denver destroys Houston in a no-contest. Once again, not out of the realm of possibility.

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 7-6-2

Season: 46-43-4, 51.6 percent

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