Week 10 NFL Picks

Apologies for the brevity, but I forgot to post these entirely on Friday. Anyways, here they are. Not too many dogs I’m gravitating towards this weekend, but I’m a big fan of numerous home teams laying less than a field goal. Good luck!

Ravens (-7.5) over BROWNS

JAGUARS (-2.5) over Texans

PANTHERS (-3) over Chiefs

SAINTS (-3) over Broncos

JETS (-1.5) over Rams

EAGLES (+1.5) over Falcons

WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Vikings

Packers (-2.5) over TITANS

Bears (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS

CHARGERS (-4) over Dolphins

CARDINALS (-14) over 49ers

STEELERS (-2.5) over Cowboys

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Seahawks

GIANTS (+1) over Bengals

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 2-7-1

Season: 59-66-6, 47.1 percent

Week 7 NFL Picks

(Home team in CAPS)

Bears (+7.5) over PACKERS

Spoiler Alert: Alshon Jeffery did not regress. In my defense, the Bears were only trailing by a field goal when Brian Hoyer went down.

RAMS (+3) over Giants

I should note that I don’t actually have any units personally on this game. Hypothetically, though, neither of these teams should be laying a field goal in London. Take the points blindly (or, better yet, avoid it entirely).

Vikings (-3) over EAGLES

This is the ultimate trap spot for Minnesota, but I’m fine with taking an L as long as it means not betting against them. The Vikings are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.

CHIEFS (-6) over Saints

Enough betting minds I respect are on New Orleans +6 this week, but I just can’t come around to the idea of the Saints stopping anyone Spencer Ware on the road. Sure, the Chiefs average only 5.4 yards per play (22nd in the league), but New Orleans’ defense has been gashed each and every week.

Washington (+1.5) over LIONS

Albeit an incremental amount, 1.5-points seems like too many for Detroit to be giving. If you’re skeptical, take the Over (49.5) and move on.

BENGALS (-10) over Browns

The Bengals were on their way to covering against New England before Bill Belichick suddenly realized that Cincy’s linebackers couldn’t keep up with James White. They should win with ease against a hapless Browns team that could potentially be without Terrelle Pryor this weekend.

Bills (-3) over DOLPHINS 

Miami isn’t fooling anyone with that performance against Pittsburgh. Buy high on the Bills this week.

JAGUARS (-1) over Raiders

Allen Robinson has caught six passes for 103 yards on the road this season. At home, he’s recorded 18 receptions for 184 yards and three scores.

TITANS (-3) over Colts

Over the last two weeks, Mike Mularkey has finally been using Marcus Mariota properly. He’s averaged seven carries (14 total) in that time, and has essentially stopped targeting Andre Johnson and Tajae Sharp (three combined targets against Cleveland in Week 6). Indianapolis additionally remains a disaster on defense, allowing the ninth- and second-most raw fantasy points to quarterbacks and running backs. (DeMarco Murray, anyone?)

Ravens (+2) over JETS

Chargers (+6.5) over FALCONS

No team is in a worse spot than the Falcons this week. Not only do they somehow have to bounce back from grueling defeat in Seattle, Atlanta is notably 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite. If that weren’t enough, the Chargers have had 10 days to prepare and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. I don’t even mind San Diego straight up (+205) here.

Buccaneers (Pick) over 49ERS

Since NaVorro Bowman went down in Week 4, opposing RB1’s have averaged 23 carries for 148.5 yards (6.45 YPC) and 2.5 touchdowns against San Francisco in the last two weeks. Jacquizz Rodgers isn’t David Johnson, but he did receive 35 carries in his last spot start in place of Doug Martin.

STEELERS (+7) over Patriots

If Philip Rivers weren’t the cover image, it would be Le’Veon Bell. That’s how much I love the Steelers here. Ben Roethlisberger clearly matters, but this line has over-adjusted to extreme heights. In fact, if Roethlisberger were healthy, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Steelers would be favored in this spot. Instead, they’re getting a touchdown at home. Landry Jones wasn’t the most efficient quarterback in two starts for Big Ben last season (513 yards, 58.2 completion percentage), but he now has experience under his belt. That’s more than he could say last year. I like Pittsburgh to win outright.

Seahawks (+1.5) over CARDINALS

When this line initially opened in April, the Seahawks were favored by one point. Suddenly, they’re road dogs. I don’t mind Arizona’s new offensive scheme — ground-and-pound plus play-action rather than airing it out constantly — but Seattle’s defense isn’t what’s been holding them back. If Russell Wilson is even marginally healthier than he showed last week, Seattle should at least cover.

BRONCOS (-8.5) over Texans

Ideally, you’ll want to tease the Broncos before this line reaches -9. -8.5 is probably safe, but it’s a bit concerning that Vegas has Denver winning by nearly nine points despite setting this total at 40.5. That would basically imply that Denver destroys Houston in a no-contest. Once again, not out of the realm of possibility.

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 7-6-2

Season: 46-43-4, 51.6 percent

Week 6 NFL Picks

Broncos (-3) over CHARGERS

Like I said: not the sharp side. Serves me right.

DOLPHINS (+7.5) over Steelers

At this time last week, the Steelers were laying 4.5 points to Miami. One week later, they’re suddenly favored by more than a touchdown. It’s obvious to anyone that’s watched even one snap of Dolphins football that they’re the worst team in the league, but Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a juggernaut away from Heinz Field. Ben Roethlisberger, for example, has averaged 312 yards and 2.5 touchdowns at home over the last three seasons. On the road, those averages have plummeted to 283 and 1.2. There’s also the fact that Adam Gase finally had enough of his own team, outright cutting his own starting left tackle (Billy Turner) and guard (Dallas Thomas) earlier this week. For Miami, there’s now an aura that everyone is essentially playing for their jobs. It would be a travesty if the Dolphins don’t somehow cover here.

Bengals (+8.5) over PATRIOTS

When this line initially opened in April (prior to Tom Brady’s suspension), the Patriots were favored by four points. The Bengals admittedly haven’t looked like the playoff contender we all thought they would be, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Fact is they haven’t looked like anything just yet. No one has any clue what this team’s identity is, which makes them an extremely dangerous matchup on the road. They’re certainly not as bad as they looked on Sunday, and they likely aren’t as good as they performed against Miami two weeks ago. Something’s gotta give.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Ravens

SAINTS (+2.5) over Panthers

The Panthers began the season with James Bradberry, Robert McClain, and Bene Benwikere as their three starting corners. All three are out this week (Benwikere was cut earlier in the week). Cam Newton averaged 646 yards and threw for seven touchdowns against New Orleans last season, but it’s an even better matchup for Drew Brees due to Carolina’s injuries. As mentioned time and time again, the Saints’ offense is also unstoppable at home.

BEARS (-2) over Jaguars

The Jaguars will definitely be a sharp play this week, but I can’t in good conscience shy away from the home team laying less than a field goal — especially when said home team is still starting their best options at quarterback (Brian Hoyer), running back (Jordan Howard), and wide receiver (Cam Meredith).

49ers (+9) over BILLS

This line is clearly inflated so that the books can protect themselves against Bills teasers — multi-team bets that involve trading six points in your favor for lower odds. (In this particular case, a teaser would allow you to lay three points with Buffalo rather than nine.) Either way, there’s an outside chance the 49ers cover outright. With Marcell Dareus missing from the middle of Buffalo’s defensive line this week, San Francisco should have no issues running the ball, which is something they do on 51 percent of their offensive plays. I don’t expect them to stop Buffalo defensively, but they should be able to keep up (and, in turn, cover).

LIONS (-3) over Rams

Browns (+7) over TITANS

Since when did the Titans earn the right to lay a touchdown over anyone?

WASHINGTON (+2.5) over Eagles

For the second consecutive week, books have favored Carson Wentz, a rookie, on the road. And for the second straight week, the wrong team is favored. There’s no denying that Ryan Mathews (health permitting) should have a spectacular day rushing against the league’s worst run defense, but Washington should be able to cover as an inexplicable home dog.

Chiefs (-2) over RAIDERS

Andy Reid is 15-2 SU following a bye.

SEAHAWKS (-6) over Falcons

Cowboys (+4) over PACKERS

By now, you’ve heard that Green Bay has the league’s best rushing defense, suffocating opposing backs to the tune of 2.0 yards per attempt. Whatever the case, that statistic is slightly overblown. The Packers have yet to play even a mediocre rushing offense, facing T.J. Yeldon (3.2 YPA this season), Adrian Peterson (1.6), Theo Riddick (3.4), and Orleans Darkwa (3.7) to date. Green Bay’s defensive line penetrates consistently enough that they warrant some respect, but it should still be an easy day at the office for Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas’ offensive line.

TEXANS (-3) over Colts

Jets (+7.5) over CARDINALS

Let’s assume for a moment that the Cardinals and Steelers were facing one another on a neutral field this week. What would the line be? Steelers -1? -2, or even -2.5, maybe?  Well, Pittsburgh was favored by 7.5 points over the Jets just last week. Needless to say, the Cardinals haven’t shown anything that warrants them being favored by the same total over New York.

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 4-8-1

Season: 39-37-2, 48.6 percent

Week 3 NFL Picks

(Home team in CAPS)

PATRIOTS (-1) over Texans

Jacoby Brissett was atrocious and it didn’t even matter. This one almost felt dirty. (Keyword: almost.)

BILLS (+4) over Cardinals

I absolutely hate this spot for Arizona. The Bills are on 10-days rest and returning home to face a Cardinals offense traveling from West to East for an early kick-off. Buffalo’s defense should be inspired following former OC Greg Roman’s (a.k.a. the fall guy) recent firing. This line also opened as Bills +2.5 back in April, but posted as Bills +6.5 overnight Sunday. It’s obviously shrunk since.

TITANS (Pick) over Raiders

The Raiders are clearly a young and upcoming team with postseason aspirations, but 2016 is already proving to be a dreadful year for them. Not only do they have to continue overcoming 1pm starts on the road in four of their next six games (Week 3 included), their defense has allowed 1,035 total yards so far, an NFL record for the most yards allowed through two games. Marcus Mariota should shine in this spot.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Washington

This line has decreased from -4.5 to -3.5 since it initially opened, but I still think the Giants should be favored by at least five points. Josh Norman will finally be unchained and allowed to shadow Odell Beckham, but that’s been overblown in this particular matchup. Washington’s weakness remains in the middle of the field where they’ve allowed slot receivers (Eli Rogers and Cole Beasley) to combine for 11 catches, 134 yards, and one touchdown through the first two weeks. Have yourself a day, Sterling Shepard.

DOLPHINS (-10) over Browns

Cody Kessler is starting in a professional football game.

JAGUARS (+1) over Ravens

Joe Flacco was pacing for a career-high 661 passing attempts before tearing his ACL in 2015. He’s now on pace for 624, also a career-high. Although that likely means another terrific performance in fantasy, Baltimore hasn’t done enough to warrant being favored on the road. That the Jags are nearly a pick following their dud last week tells you all you need to know about what Vegas thinks of them in Week 3.

PACKERS (-7) over Lions

Green Bay opened the season with back-to-back road games. That’s only notable because of Aaron Rodgers’ vast home/road splits last season. The Packers’ perennial all-world quarterback averaged 265.3 passing yards at Lambeau but only 212.4 yards on the road. Detroit’s offensive pace this season (sixth-highest, including 55 no-huddle plays) should allow the Packers and Rodgers to “get right” in a shootout at home.

Broncos (+3.5) over BENGALS

The Broncos defense suffocated Cam Newton and Andrew Luck in Weeks 1 and 2, limiting the two to a combined 391 passing yards, two scores, and three turnovers. That’s awful news for Andy Dalton and the Bengals’ offense, who currently lead the league with a 75 percent passing rate. What’s more is that Denver’s offensive strength aligns perfectly with Cincinnati’s weakness: the Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards through the first two weeks of the year.

PANTHERS (-7) over Vikings

Minnesota will be fine without Adrian Peterson longterm. When he was suspended for 15 games in 2014, Jerick McKinnon averaged 10.2 carries over 11 games, finishing with an average 4.76 yards per attempt. Matt Asiata handled all the red zone work in that time, averaging 2.47 carries inside the 20-yard line over 15 games. As for the Vikings’ short term outlook, note that Carolina’s defense has allowed only two backs (Rashad Jennings and C.J. Anderson) to eclipse 100-yards rushing in its last 14 games.

BUCCANEERS (-5) over Rams

The Bucs’ secondary will be one to target in fantasy as the season progresses. So far, their defense has allowed Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer to finish as the QB6 and QB5 in Weeks 1 and 2. Fortunately for them, their weakness is one that Los Angeles and, more specifically, Case Keenum can’t possibly exploit. The Rams have yet to engineer a scoring drive and have amassed only nine points through the first two weeks of the season.

SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over 49ers

Seattle’s offense and, more specifically, offensive line have looked abysmal so far. Having said that, San Francisco has run the most no-huddle plays on offense (90) through the first two weeks of the season. Even if their overall production results in mediocrity, the Seahawks are going to have numerous opportunities to cover here.

CHIEFS (-3) over Jets

The Jets have allowed eight completions of 25-plus yards and six runs of 10-plus. As great as New York’s front-seven has been, Alex Smith should create offense with ease. It doesn’t hurt for an ailing Chiefs defense that Brandon Marshall is questionable at best (though it’s likely he’ll play through injury).

COLTS (-2.5) over Chargers

The Colts’ defense ranks bottom-seven in passing and rushing yards allowed. They also haven’t had Vontae Davis, Patrick Robinson, and Trent Cole available at the same time. Assuming Davis returns and shadows Travis Benjamin immediately (something that has yet to be confirmed), Indianapolis’ offense should find a way to outscore the Chargers at home.

Steelers (-3.5) over EAGLES

The Eagles have produced a +34 point differential through the first two weeks, but their schedule thus far must be taken into account. For example, Philadelphia currently ranks 13th in Football Outsiders’ DAVE statistic despite running away from their opponents in Weeks 1 (Cleveland) and 2 (at Chicago). Ross Cockrell has quietly been a bright spot in Pittsburgh’s secondary so far and should have no issues containing Jordan Matthews.

Bears (+7.5) over COWBOYS

Since the Cowboys initially moved into AT&T Stadium in 2009, they’re 20-37-1 ATS. The market also caused this line to go off the rails. Dallas, for instance, opened as four-point home favorites before Jay Cutler was ruled out. Once that news broke, the line went as far as to budge off a key number (-7). Basically, I refuse to believe that Cutler is worth 3.5 points. I do, however, expect the Cowboys to produce numerous explosive plays in a game decided by less than a touchdown.

SAINTS (-3) over Falcons

Mark Ingram has scored five touchdowns in his last three games against Atlanta. I realize he’s received only 21 carries so far (nine in Week 2), but New Orleans can’t possibly continue passing in 67 percent of their offensive plays. I expect this game to go Under (53.5), although a spectacular outing for Matt Ryan is inevitable.

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 11-5

Season: 22-10, 68.7 percent

 

Week 2 NFL Picks

(Home team in CAPS)

Jets (Pick) over BILLS

I’m as excited as anyone to bring the Thursday Night Dumpster Fire back, but for the time being, 2-0 ATS will have to suffice.

Titans (+6) over LIONS

Detroit +3.5 last week was all too obvious a pick by the time kickoff had rolled around. I’m expecting a similar opinion about the Titans’ line by Sunday morning. While Detroit’s offense has kept that same uptempo pace that made them such a fascinating watch in the second half of last season, their defense was quietly torched for four passes of 25-plus yards in Week 1. Darius Slay, who allowed no receptions in coverage against the Colts, will likely shadow Tajae Sharp. Unfortunately for the Lions, that leaves the rest of their defense scrambling to cover Delanie Walker.

TEXANS (-2.5) over Chiefs

Prior to Keenan Allen suffering a torn ACL in Week 1, Rivers had averaged 8.1 yards per attempt against Kansas City. He averaged 6.0 YPA once Allen went down. Don’t let his 243 yards on the day fool you. His middling results were simply a byproduct of losing his No. 1 receiver mid-game. The Chiefs’ defense is in disarray and, quite frankly, an overrated unit without Justin Houston. Have yourself a day, Will Fuller.

Dolphins (+6.5) over PATRIOTS

New England’s victory over Arizona was more a testament to the brilliance of Bill Belichick rather than any sorta arrival for Jimmy Garoppolo and the offense. The Patriots are 6-10-2 ATS against the AFC East over the last three seasons.

RAMS (+6.5) over Seahawks

Any time you can take Case Keenum getting points at home, you have to do it.

(Actually, this line opened as Rams +4 in April. I’m just gravitating towards the value. Also, I’m an idiot.)

BROWNS (+6) over Ravens

15 of Baltimore’s last 17 games have been decided by a one-score margin. I was much more confident in Josh McCown’s play while he was under Marc Trestman’s tutelage in Chicago, but the Ravens clearly haven’t shown anything that warrants them being six-point road favorites in a division game. This spread is also inflated since Cleveland looked atrocious in Week 1. In April, for instance, the Ravens opened as three-point road favorites.

Bengals (+3.5) over STEELERS

A.J. Green has averaged 13.5 targets, nine receptions, 139 yards, and 0.75 touchdowns in his last four games against the Steelers. Did I mention he plays the Steelers this week?

Cowboys (+3) over WASHINGTON

Dallas just allowed their rookie quarterback to throw the ball 45 times in Week 1, all the while handing their rookie running back 20 carries. The results clearly weren’t there, but the opportunities were promising. This week, the Cowboys won’t have to worry about Johnathan Hankins, Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison, and Jason Pierre-Paul — all graded between 72.1 and 80.4 at Pro Football Focus — staring across from them in the trenches.

GIANTS (-5) over Saints

Last season, opposing quarterbacks averaged 8.5 YPA and a 124.7 passer rating at home against New Orleans’ secondary. If Eli Manning threw for three scores in only 54 plays against Dallas, just imagine what he’ll do versus the Saints.

PANTHERS (-13.5) over 49ers

Count the red flags: A well-rested Carolina offense (ding) coming off a loss (ding) now faces the 49ers (ding) on a short week (ding) at home (ding). San Francisco’s pace (second-highest in Week 1) also allows for more mistakes. The Rams weren’t able to capitalize, but at the end of the day, the same won’t be said about Cam Newton and the Panthers’ offense.

CARDINALS (-7) over Buccaneers

As stated earlier, Belichick game-planned for the Cardinals’ offense perfectly. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, allowed Matt Ryan to pass for 334 yards and two scores in Week 1. Jameis Winston admittedly looked spectacular against the Falcons, but Arizona’s defense is slightly better. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman also combined for 157 yards. If David Johnson continues playing in 84 percent of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps and receives 94 percent of their carries, it should be smooth sailing for the home team.

BRONCOS (-6) over Colts

For what it’s worth, you couldn’t make me touch this spread at a book this week. I can see a scenario in which the Colts lose by two touchdowns, but also a Bizarro Jerry-like one in which they (miraculously) win outright. Don’t let that ruin the offensive outlook for either side, though. Sharps have apparently unloaded on the Over (46.5), assuring fireworks from both teams. (Trevor Siemian on DraftKings, anyone?)

RAIDERS (-4.5) over Falcons

Should the Falcons take Deshaun Watson or DeShone Kizer with the first overall pick?

CHARGERS (-3) over Jaguars

San Diego’s offense is going to be a disaster without Allen, but it should be able to stave off a torrential plummet against Jacksonville. Expect another week in which Danny Woodhead commands a majority of snaps and touches against a Jags defense that’s traveling East to West.

VIKINGS (+2.5) over Packers

I would feel much better about this line if it were Shaun Hill starting over Sam Bradford, but the fact of the matter is that Mike Zimmer is 25-9 ATS as Minnesota’s head coach, including 12-5 ATS at home.

BEARS (-3) over Eagles

Carson Wentz looked great last week (278-2-0), but that performance also came at home against a hapless Browns defense. His first road game in the NFL, let alone one that occurs in primetime at Solder Field, won’t be so pretty. Expect a big night from Jeremy Langford, who commanded 96.4 percent of the Bears’ backfield snaps last week. Philadelphia notably allowed a league-high seven runs of 10-plus yards to the Browns in Week 1.

Last Week: 11-5

This Week: 1-0

Season: 12-5

 

Week 1 NFL Picks

 

For the fifth consecutive season, I’ve chosen to keep my weekly picks on public display because…well, because I hate myself. Feel free to tweet (@notJDaigle) or email me (daigle10@icloud.com) with any questions or, more likely, vulgar comments.

(Home team in CAPS)

BRONCOS (+3) over Panthers

I realize everyone was looking forward to the return of the Thursday Night Dumpster Fire, but for one week at least, Thursday picks are safe.

Buccaneers (+3) over FALCONS

I honestly don’t have a strong opinion on this game and, quite frankly, won’t be watching it. I do, however, have a strong “opinion” (read: celery units) on the Falcons finishing under their 7.5 season win total. I’m just assuming their inevitable collapse starts here.

EAGLES (-3) over Browns

Robert Griffin III averaged 8.1 yards per attempt in the preseason, making everyone forget that even if he were to play great right out of the gates, Cleveland’s defense allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 128.4 rushing yards per game in 2015. How Carson Wentz performs in his NFL debut doesn’t even matter.

JETS (+2.5) over Bengals

Without Hue Jackson, I fully expect the Bengals’ offense to regress negatively en route to missing the playoffs. Even if A.J. Green leads the league in receiving yards after Week 1 (and he definitely could), I don’t think it means much here.

SAINTS (-1.5) over Raiders

The Raiders acquired Sean Smith, Bruce Irvin, Aldon Smith, and Reggie Smith in free agency. While that should make their defense better this season, it’s still just a theoretical point in Week 1. Not theoretically, Drew Brees threw for 462 more yards, 14 more touchdowns, and averaged 1.2 YPA more at home last season.

Vikings (-2.5) over TITANS

Chalk me up as the only person still angry that Minnesota traded for a quarterback AFTER I invested in their Over (8) following Teddy Bridgewater’s injury. Yes, I feel much more comfortable with Shaun Hill striving for eight wins than I do watching Sam-fucking-Bradford shoot for nine. And by the way, this game sucks, too.

Chargers (+6.5) over CHIEFS

Rivers finished 0-2 against the Chiefs last season, averaging 220.5 yards, one pick, and a 58.9 completion percentage. At the same time, Keenan Allen didn’t take part in either game. Rivers averaged 344.1 yards and 2.2 scores when Allen started last season. I fully expect Kansas City to be in the conversation as a Super Bowl contender at season’s end, but with so many injuries to their defense in Week 1, they seem slightly overvalued here.

RAVENS (-3) over Bills

Before a torn ACL cut Joe Flacco’s season short in Week 11, he was on-pace for 4,466 yards, 22.4 touchdowns, and a career-high 661 passing attempts through the first 10 games of 2015. The Ravens’ defense has (understandably) been labeled as old and shaky, but fact remains that 14 of Baltimore’s games resulted in a one-score margin  despite the loss of their starting quarterback (Joe Flacco), perennial Pro Bowl pass rusher (Terrell Suggs), two starting wide receivers (Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman), two running backs (Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro), two tight ends (Crockett Gillmore and Dennis Pitta), and their starting left tackle and center (Eugene Monroe and Jeremy Zuttah).

Let’s be clear: Buffalo is going to explode in this game. Tyrod Taylor averaged 191.5 yards and 6.46 YPA in two games without Sammy Watkins last season, and 221 YPG/8.79 YPA when the latter started. But I still think Week 1 is the beginning of Baltimore’s run to the AFC Championship. (Yep.)

Bears (+6) over TEXANS

In seven starts with Denver last season, Brock Osweiler averaged 7.2 YPA (23rd) and a 48.7 QBR (25th). He should be better under the tutelage of Bill O’Brien, but his performance in the preseason (270 yards, two scores, 73.9 percent completion rate) has overshadowed just how bad he was in the regular season. With J.J. Watt’s back still aching, I admittedly love this bet (and may or may not have invested interest in the moneyline) much more than I should.

JAGUARS (+5.5) over Packers

It has yet to be confirmed whether Jordy Nelson will be on a snap count Sunday, but this is a great spot for Jacksonville whether he’s in there or not. After finishing -1.4 games below their pythagorean record in 2015, the Jags are returning even money on their 7.5 season win total this year. I have the Packers winning more games than any other team and Aaron Rodgers eventually being crowned 2016 MVP, but 5.5 points is entirely too many to lay on the road in the Florida heat, especially against an offense that finished fourth in explosive passing plays (passes that resulted in a gain of 25-plus yards) last season.

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Dolphins

Yep.

COWBOYS (Pick) over Giants

The bad: Dallas is 1-12 and 2-10-1 against the spread without Tony Romo over the last two seasons. DC Rod Marinelli rendered Odell Beckham (9-80-0) and Eli Manning (363-0-0) useless in 2015, but had issues stopping both the prior year. Although New York’s offense will surely be better, the Cowboys will regress positively in every category that tends to fluctuate from year to year. For instance, they ranked dead last in fumble recovery percentage, went 2-6 in one-score games, and finished -1.2 games below their pythagorean record. And we haven’t even touched on how their defense was the worst in history at creating turnovers. All that, as well as their simplistic schedule, should result in 10-plus wins whether Romo is healthy or not. (SPOILER ALERT: He isn’t.)

Lions (+3) over COLTS

By now, the Lions’ offense, which ranked fourth in pace over the final eight games last season, isn’t even a sneaky wagon that’ll drive one or two to the betting (and fantasy) promised land. It’s basically stopping at every corner, trying to pack more people in with each passing day. And with the Colts’ injury report looking more like their defensive depth chart, this one seems pretty easy. (Which means that I’m definitely on the wrong side.)

Patriots (+6) over CARDINALS

This isn’t so much about the line movement since Tom Brady’s suspension wasn’t not going to push this line from +1 to +6. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Cardinals won this one by double-digits. Dating back to Week 17, though, Carson Palmer has completed 72 of his last 128 passes (56.2 percent) for five scores and 10 interceptions (including the preseason). Six points is just too many for that type of recent performance.

WASHINGTON (+3) over Steelers

Washington is ultimately in store for a disastrous year. Between its strength of schedule (second-toughest according to Warren Sharp) and Kirk Cousins’ inevitable regression following an absurd 20-3 TD-INT ratio over his final nine games, I personally have Washington finishing third in the NFC East, one spot ahead of the Eagles. (For what it’s worth, I also have the Steelers winning the AFC North due to their cupcake schedule.) Having said that, it’s stunning that Washington is getting three points at home. Pittsburgh is clearly a favorite for the betting public, and while three points is worth grabbing right now, it’s also plausible to wait this one out and nab the +3.5 once it gets there.

Or, you know, just bet it a second time Monday night.

49ERS (+2.5) over Rams

To take part in one of the sharpest bets in 2015, all you had to do was ignore public opinion about the 49ers in Week 1 and bet them as +1.5 home dogs against the Vikings. If you recall, Carlos Hyde then went out and ran for 168 yards and two touchdowns in a 20-3 victory. If you still don’t understand what I’m getting it, just ask yourself if Case Keenum should be favored on the road.

Last Season (through Week 15): 112-110-4

This Week: 1-0

Season: 1-0

2016 NFL Preview: Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Outlook

The only thing the 2015 Dallas Cowboys had left to play for in Week 17 was pride and a $300,000 bonus for Darren McFadden, who was three yards shy of reaching his 1,000-yard incententive. McFadden had certainly earned the additional paycheck. Once starting running back Joseph Randle was forced to exit the game in Week 7 with an oblique injury, McFadden would average 4.75 yards per carry and a +6.21 Plus/Minus at DraftKings to finish the year (per our Trendstool).

Three quarters into that final game, pride had already been jettisoned, as Dallas trailed Washington’s B-team 34-16 with under 12 minutes to play. McFadden had reached the 1,000-yard mark earlier in the contest, so few people would’ve blamed him if he had just coasted until the final whistle. But the Cowboys were driving — on Washington’s side of the field, in fact — and were suddenly only 23 yards shy of recording their 24th touchdown on the year, which would at least allow them to finish 31st, rather than 32nd, in scoring.

First and 10: Kellen Moore pass incomplete deep right.
Second and 10: Kellen Moore pass incomplete deep left.
Third and 10: McFadden left end for 20 yards. Fumble. Touchback.

No single play summarized the 2015 Cowboys better: Expected to be good but ultimately very bad. Those expectations are evidently extending into 2016. Vegas isn’t taking the Cowboys’ 4-12 record at face value, as Dallas’ 9.5 win total this year is the highest in the NFC East and tied with that of notable teams such as the Chiefs, Bengals, and Vikings. The early consensus is that everything that could’ve gone wrong for the Cowboys last season did and that there’s no reason to think that the same will happen again this year.

You can read more at FantasyLabs, and find the rest of our NFL Previews here.

2016 NFL Preview: Oakland Raiders Fantasy Outlook

2015 was a celebratory landmark for the Raiders. Not only did they draft Amari Cooper, who was clearly the most polished wide receiver to come out of college last year, but they were also a road favorite for the first time since Week 2 of the 2012 season. That may not seem like much to the casual fan, but ask people who have cheered for Oakland for any substantial length of time and they’ll tell you differently.

Expectations for this year’s team are high — but the threat of relocation after the season looms large and diminishes some of the excitement surrounding this young-and-upcoming team. Still, for the first time since 2003 (the season after their unprecedented Super Bowl run), the Raiders are projected with a win total above .500. Opening the season at 7.5, the Raiders were soon bet up to 8.5.

Built around a young core of players who have been drafted within the last three years, the Raiders are favored by more points this year than they were last, and they’re dogs in only three games. Again, there’s a lot to like about this team.

You can read more at FantasyLabs, and find the rest of our NFL Previews here.

An Unbiased Podcast: Wild Card Lines

John Daigle joins his buddy Corey to discuss and preview Wild Card weekend. They also give free workout tips and end with a hypothetical that “won’t save the world’s problems or anything”.

Media Player Link:  An Unbiased Podcast

iTunes Link:  An Unbiased Podcast

An Unbiased Podcast: Week 17 Lines

John Daigle joins his buddy Corey to preview what they consider to be the most important of the Week 17 lines. They also discuss the return of Josh Freeman, the Vikings offense, what Chip Kelly did wrong, Washington, Eric Weddle’s ongoing battle with San Diego, Ryan Tannehill’s bleeding fetus, and wrap-up their fourth regular season with another edition of “Hypotheticals with Corey”.

Media Player Link:  An Unbiased Podcast

iTunes Link:  An Unbiased Podcast