(Home team in CAPS)
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-7.5) over Atlanta Falcons
Total: 46.5
Atlanta hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since October 15. Carolina, on the other hand, is the only team to have a higher rushing ratio than passing.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4) over New Orleans Saints
Total: 50.5
The New Orleans defense is playing in a professional football game.
Detroit Lions (-2.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS
Total: 40.5
Theo Riddick has finished the last three weeks top-10 in passing targets among running backs. Todd Gurley has finished the last three weeks top-10 in nothing.
KANSAS CITY (-10) over San Diego Chargers
Total: 45
The Kansas City defense has scored 20-plus fantasy points in four of their last five games. On the opposite end of the spectrum, basically only Javontee Herndon (I’ve never heard of him either) and Malcom Floyd are healthy on offense for the Chargers. Don’t worry about the ongoing committee between Charcandrick West (11 touches, 66.6% snap rate last week) and Spencer Ware (nine touches, 33.3% snap rate). Both are viable options against a San Diego defense allowing 22.98 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
NEW YORK JETS (-7) over Tennessee Titans
Total: 43.5
Marcus Mariota has an impressive 15-0 TD-INT ratio in the red zone this season, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has scored at least 13 fantasy points in every game finished (the only instance in which he hadn’t being their game in Oakland). The Titans have bottled opposing backs to a clip of 3.10 YPA in their last six games, but no matter: Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are tied with one another for the second-most red zone targets this season.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 49.5
In what will likely close with the second-highest total of the weekend, every player has an above-average chance to be featured through the air; Cincinnati has limited each runner in the last five backfields faced to 63 yards or fewer while Pittsburgh has allowed a clip of 2.86 YPA in their last three games. In reference to the first sentence, Antonio Brown has a total of 71 targets since Week 8 (once Ben Roethlisberger returned from injury) and Martavis Bryant received nine targets in the only game he hasn’t scored in this season. And A.J. Green at home…well, see for yourself:
Buffalo Bills (-1) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Total: 47
Let’s play a quick game:
- Player A – 163 carries, 569 yards, 3.5 YPA, 4 TD
- Player B – 160 carries, 767 yards, 4.8 YPA, 6 TD
- Player C – 173 carries, 792 yards, 4.6 YPA, 5 TD
Player A is DeMarco Murray. Player B is the Eagles backfield, a combination of Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, and Kenjon Barner. And Player C? LeSean McCoy.
CHICAGO BEARS (-3) over Washington
Total: 44
Washington allows an average of 16.2 more opponent plays per game on the road than they do at home. Spoiler alert: they ain’t at home this week.
San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
Total: 41
DENVER BRONCOS (-7) over Oakland Raiders
Total: 43.5
Oakland has allowed a clip of 3.32 YPA in their last two games, but it doesn’t matter. The lot of Brock Osweiler and the Denver passing game (as well as the Broncos defense) remain the only plays.
DALLAS COWBOYS (+7) over Green Bay Packers
Total: 42.5
DGAFCassel and defense are apparently the only things Dallas needed this season.
New England Patriots (-3) over HOUSTON TEXANS
Total: 45
James White has progressively seen more snaps (18-31-51) and touches (4-5-12) in each of the last three weeks, but there’s really only one reason to pick the Patriots:
New York Giants (-1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Total: 47
Miami ran only 46 plays and had more punts (9) than first downs (8) last week but still needed a Matt Schaub Pick Six (his full name) to win. No thanks.
***
(Editor’s Note: Both the Indianapolis Colts-Jacksonville Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks-Baltimore Ravens matchups had no line at time of submission and therefore weren’t previewed.)
Last Week: 10-4
Season: 98-69-6, 58.6%
The Unbiased Fan 